Update Time

Oops, it has been way too long since I updated the blog. I guess half the reason is I didn't really have a great start to 2009 and took some time off playing for a while. I had also enlisted a poker coach, which changed my game (some ways for the better, some ways for the worst). I do believe this coaching had a negative impact on my game for a while as I was adjusting to a new style. I was probably doing a few things right, but in the wrong situations.

To fix this I have taken my old style and added a few new things I learned that work consistantly. I keep most of the other new stuff in my back pocket for special occasions (most complex plays of course won't work if you do them too often... not to mention the increased risk factor. I certainly learned that the button vs blinds 3-bet, 4-bet, and 5-bet game can be a swingy one.). I gave serious multitable 6-max a try online and have been doing well. I also started playing a lot more heads up online. In February I spent a week in Vegas with my brother and hit the tables, had a blast and made some money.

Enough about me, time for some strategy talk:

Why are you raising? (value, position, habit, mistakes in overvalue)
A lot of players tend to raise out of habit. They raise because that is what they think the proper play is supposed to be. They figure, with a good hand pre-flop I am supposed to raise. But they don't really think about why they are actually raising. For example, in a loose cash game a player make pick up AKo in early position and raise 3 times the big blind. This is a pretty standard play and many players would never question this. But why is it that people do this?

Raising is generally suggested for a number of reasons:

• To thin the field of callers pre-flop (limit the number of players)
  
• To build a pot (betting for value)
  
• To steal the pot (bluffing or semi-bluffing)
  
• To control the betting
  

Ok, those are pretty much the standard reasons for raising. Now let's look at some of the downfalls of making standard raises:

• Your range of starting hands is more easily defined by your opponents
  
• You are building a pot, committing yourself more to the pot
  
• You are building a pot, making a second bet on the flop more likely and inherently bigger
• You control the betting, which may get you in trouble if your opponent is countering your play
  

Now let's look at compounding those downfalls, by raising in early position:

• You hand range gets even narrower, especially if you are a tight player
• You are expected to make a continuation bet
• The reverse implied odds of your hand get higher
  

So is raising always the right play? I would say definitely not. It very much depends on the situation, but a lot of players neglect to consider this and just raise out of habit. To put this in perspective let's look at two examples of the same hand at very different tables:

1. AKo under the gun in a very tight game.
In this game raising pre-flop will likely get the expected benefits that most people associate with raising. You will thin the field and isolate probably just 1 opponent to play after the flop, if any. You will likely also be able to narrow your opponents hand range to a small range of strong cards. In this case, raising will be effective for it's intended purpose. You are raising for value to be played heads up after the flop.

2. AKo under the gun in a very loose game.
In this game raising pre-flop will probably get you the reverse results and can get you in a lot of trouble. I actually find in live cash games that the larger you raise pre-flop, the more callers you get. I suppose everybody wants to see a flop to see if they can hit a monster to take your whole stack. So the raise is no longer effective in thinning the field. You have now built a pot out of position and defined you hand range to your opponents. Let's say you raise and get 4 callers (which seems normal at loose live $1/$2 cash games), now how are you going to feel about any flop? If you hit 1 pair, you may end up investing a lot more money before you realize what any of the other players have. Opponents are looking to get your whole stack.

So, is raising the best option? It may seem counter-intuitive, but if you just limped you would disguise your hand and not have as much money invested in the pot in case you miss the flop and need to get out cheap. Remember, you will be playing the hand out of position and AK really is just a drawing hand. You may have nothing but ace high after the flop. The looser the game is, the more the value of starting hands drop and the more the importance of position grows. Not to mention by limping in a loose game you can allow somebody else to raise, wait for a few callers and then come over the top of the original raise if you want to isolate heads up for a big pot or if you sense weakness, etc. Other avenues are available from the standard ABC raise.

You need to be able to react to the rest of the table, instead of the rest of the table reacting to you. Making money at loose games is about post flop play, not pre-flop, if many players are going to see a flop. Pre-flop play does not get respect and standard continuation bets are almost always called. To be a winner at these tables you have to alter standard play and combat the table with the proper play for those player types.

Many people may or may not agree with the above statements (including myself, everything is relative and situational). I am going to raise AKo under the gun most times myself, but there are times to switch it up, especially if a very loose player is being super aggressive and the rest of the table is passive. The point I am trying to make is that you should not just raise out of habit. Get creative with your plays from time to time, and keep everybody guessing. Change those gears, know why you are raising, and stay a step ahead of your opponents.

Cash Games: Adjusting to a loose passive table

I am on pace for my goal of $15,000 profit from June to xmas this year. I ran pretty bad lately and had a bad downswing, but played in a few $2/$5 NL games and did well. My hourly rate and ROI have dropped a little since my last update, but these numbers do seem sustainable in these games even considering the relatively small sample size of hands I have logged.

I decided in this blog to go over two different topics: quickly mention the difference between $1/$2 and $2/$5 games here, and the adjustments I have made to make a stead profit in these loose cash games, with low risk play.

Adjustments
I mentioned some of the typical player tendancies in the last post at these levels. Most people make terrible preflop decisions that can be exploited, but playing these situations too aggressively can also backfire as people are hard to move off hands.

I'll give an example. $1/$2 NL. I make a $15 standard raise in the cutoff with AQs. The button, who has been raising with lots of marginal hands raises me to $45. My read on this player tells me he doesn't actually have that strong a hand. He also did the same thing a few hands ago with 99. The small blind, an extremely tight player flat calls. I have played with this tight player many times and he views me as a very tight player for 3 or 4 betting. I know by him flat calling that he has a hand that he can be pushed off of, because he always reraises preflop with KK or AA. I know he can make a big laydown if I 4-bet and see this as an opportunity to pick up this pot or isolate the very poor player heads up. The pot is now $105. I 4-bet and make my bet $185 total, leaving about $200 behind. The button looks like he absolutely hates his hand and after about 30 seconds calls putting $140 more into the pot. The small blind folds and says aloud "that's kings or aces for sure!", referring to me. I'll spare the rest of the details, but the poor player made this call with pocket 10s preflop and hits a set on the turn on a AJ6 flop.

As we can see making moves preflop can be exploited, but also can backfire causing a high amount of risk. There is a saying at these casinos "in for $2, in for $15", meaning that most people that limp in for $2 will call a raise of $15 every time. While this is good to build pots, it also normally results in bloated pots preflop with 5-6 players to see each flop. General estimations give each player about a 5% chance to make 2 pair or better on the flop, so raising preflop and hitting top pair with 5-6 other players may not be a pot to fight over if there is a combined 25% chance that you are in a marginal situation. On the other hand, small bets relative to the pot size often do the same job that larger bets would do in online games. Of course we generally need a fairly strong hand to continue. Continuations bets are generally useless as a lot of players tend to be calling stations.

With some of these charastics in mind, here are some adjustments I have made:

• Abandon most continuations bets unless I make my hand or want to control the pot with a draw. I will still make continuation bets with players that I know can actually fold or be outplayed, but for the general player I willl generally check the flop.
• I limp with a lot of strong hands. As I mentioned, raising preflop just bloats a pot and your hand range may be more transparant. By limping I desguise my hand and have the chance to 3-bet if anbody raises behind me. This is about the only way to limit the fields preflop and usually a way to pick up a lot of dead money as well.
• I play as many cheap hands from late position as I can. On the button or cutoff I will see a flop with probably 60-75% of cards in a limped pot. With these types of hands I will generally only play 2 pair or better postflop.
• Call raises in late position with gap suited connectors and any pair. I outlined in an earlier post why I believe these types of hands have the largest implied odds value. My opponents and I generally must have at least $200 stacks for this though. The more opponents that come along the better and the deeper the stack sizes the better.
• Bet for value, not to bluff. Every once in a while I will bluff, but it is usally a semi-bluff or I have a dead read on a player. A lot of these players are calling stations and are coming along in the hand regardless of your cards. Value betting is essential in these types of games. This is something I have been working on in my game. River value betting can make you a lot of money in the long term.
• Trust physical reads in critical situations. The more I play live the more I realize how consistant some physical reads can be. One that I find true probably 90% of the time in critical situations is if a player is breathing very heavy and just staring at the board he probably has monster hand. Some times in this situation if a player has gone all in and it is to me to call and I have a set or something I may turn my cards over just to confirm if I am beat or not. The player will often now get very calm and relaxed from this heavy breating state. Now I know I have to fold. The times that I felt priced in and ignored my read I have lost every time. Also getting the player to talk or answer even just one question can give away a lot of informaiton. I usually say something like "I guess you don't care what I have in my hand do you?"
  

$1/$2 vs $2/$5 live NL
These games are not that different from each other and I actually prefer $2/$5 NL. Of course I am basing these observations on a very small sample size, so I could be completely off on this. These games are a lots of times filed with the same players that frequent $1/$2 and exibit the same charastics. The better players that you would expect at these games all stick to Dealer's Choice games where there is more action. Because the $2/$5 game plays very similar to $1/$2 the only major difference is deeper stacks and a few more agressive players that get themselves in trouble and pay large hands off.

Deep stack poker is the game I enjoy the most and feel I have a better edge in. A lot of these players don't have any fundamentals of pot odds, implied odds, etc. which can be exploited in the correct situations. In this game I will raise in position more than $1/$2 and maybe continuation bet more, but I will play the same style as far as seeing cheap flops and calling raises in position with hands of high implied odds value. Implied odds can make a lot of money in these games.

Here are my observations of benefits in the $2/$5 NL game:

• Preflop raising is usually $15-20 (3-4 big blinds as opposed to 7-10 big blinds in $1/$2 NL) giving better pot odds.
• The players skill level is a little better adding the benefit that we gain more fold equity as we may be able to actually push people off marginal hands.
• There are not as many preflop callers, narrowing the hand ranges we can put people on and limiting the field preflop.
• Players are easier to figure out. You don't see as many plays that are completely random and void of logic as you would in $1/$2 NL. This allows you to better define opponents and look for situations in which you stay a step ahead of them, whether it is in pot control or just outplaying them.
• Stacks are deeper. With the relatively smaller preflop raising action and more limited fields to a flop, the stack to pot ratios* post flop allow for more play and better situations to exploit players with monsters.
• Scared money. If you can figure out which players have moved up that normally play a smaller game, you can put more pressure on them that you normally would if you detect weakness. This is a big deal to them and them may not want to invest money into a pot without a monster. As soon as you get resistance from them, get out of the way.
  

Until next time, keep fit and have fun.

* For more on stack to pot ratios (SPR) I highly recommend
Professional No-Limit Hold 'em: Volume I, one of the best cash game books on the market right now.

Live Casino Results

Last year I played poker almost exclusively online. This was mainly because of the convenience factor and lack of casinos in my area. Recently, I have moved to a new city that has a lot of casinos filled poor poker players with lots of money in their pockets from the oil industry. The first month that I played in these casinos I made a small profit while adjusting to the different style of game. I had not really had a whole lot of live poker experience up to that point. Here are my results after making some critical adjustments to the live play.

June 14, 2008 - August 17, 2008
$1/$2 No Limit Cash Games:



Because of these results I now rarely play online. The $1/$2 no limit cash games in these casinos are very soft. Here are a number of reasons why:

• Players are either passive or bluff way too much - Most players can never seem to find middle ground in their play. They are either at one side of the spectrum or the other. Players that bluff tend to do it a lot (and in very poor spots) and passive players don't seem to bluff or raise at all.
  
• Very few players adjust their game to the table - I tend to see a lot of the same players in the games I play and they all play the same style no matter what table they are at. None of them adjust their game to the changing dynamics of the table.
  
• Players just play their cards - I am always amazed by this. Some of these players have been playing poker for 20 years and still play without consideration of other players actions or the number of other players in a hand. It is not uncommon to see a player in first position to act bet a flop into 6 other players with top pair and a weak kicker. They will genuinely think they have the best hand. The play of some players can be very tranparent because of this once you sit at a table with them long enough.
  
• Players over-value their hands - See the above point. AK gets overplayed. Top pairs get over played. Bottom two pair gets over played. Pocket pairs are a disaster for everybody. Etc.
  
• Players have a lot of physical tells - I recommend reading Reap Em and Reap and Caro's Book of Tells. While these books should not be followed exclusively, they do give a good background of things to watch for. One thing to watch out for though is that physical tells can be misleading if the player over values their hand and actually thinks they are ahead, when in fact they are not. For example, some players will reraise with top pair in multi-way pots and have very confident body language because they think their hand is stronger than it actually is that particular situation.
  
• Players do not like to fold, especially before a flop. - If players limp for $2, they are almost always willing to call a $15 raise pre-flop out of position to see a flop. So a $1/$2 game can easily have a $75 pre-flop pot after a few limpers and callers. Some players will even call $25 pre-flop raises with a $100-$125 stack and then say something like "I have pot odds so I have to call." um, yeah sure... just nod and smile, nod and smile.
  
• Players lack basic understanding of poker odds and theory - Players love to chase their draws to the river. Because of this you can really charge players to chase their draws, especially on the turn. Another fundemental that some player even get wrong is that they will continue to chase even when their hand cannot improve (chasing a straight on a flush board).
  
• Players do not follow the size of the pot - I will give a common example I see to illustrate this point. Preflop their are 6 limpers and the button raises to $25. 5 People call, making the pot approximately $150. Bets on the flop now tend to be $35-$50, which is 1/3 or less of the pot, but these raises get the same result as a $75-100 bet because nobody follows the total pot size. The best way to explain this is that players view bets as absolute and not relative to the pot.
  

With all these observations in consideration I can basically set mine and wait for big hands, while using pot control on small 1 pair hands for a pretty steady profit. The games I play in have a minimum buy in of $100 (50 big blinds, not that blind sizes seem to matter in these games) and a maximum buy in of $500 (250 big blinds).

I have experimented with different buy ins and have had the most success with a $200 buy in. Most other players usually tend to have and average of $150-$200 stacks, with 1 or 2 bigger stacks at the table. I like to sit with $200 initially and play short stack poker fairly aggressively, while observing the deeper stacked player's tendancies. Once I build up to $300-$400 I am deep enough to be playing the deep stacks a lot more with hands of high implied odds value.

In a future post I will talk about some of the adjustments I made to maximize profit in these games and other strategies that seem to be the most effective.

Cash Games: An Interesting Hand

I played a hand today that I thought was interesting enough to post. I had been playing at this table for a while. The table had average action, but the villain was a tight player and seemed to be fairly solid. I had been playing well myself, but was known to continuation bet quite often. He started the hand with 55 bb (big blinds) and I started with 52 bb. With that information here is the hand:

Click here to view a larger version.

When he calls my raise from the blinds I think I can safely put him on a range of high aces, mid pairs and possibly, but more unlikely, suited connectors. I think if he had high pairs he would probably re-raise me. This is pretty standard for TAG (tight aggressive) players. If he is calling with an ace I would think his kicker must be better than mine. Tight players rarely call with less than AJ in the blinds.

He checks to me on the flop of Ah 8h 9d and I make a continuation bet (the size of the bet is actually a mistake by me. I should have made a larger bet to make drawing hands pay for drawing). In his eyes this is pretty standard for me, so he probably doesn't believe I have an ace anyway. When he check raises me here is what I think this means:

• He flopped a set and I am way behind.
• He is check-raising with some type of draw, figuring that if I don't have an ace I'll fold.
• He is check-raising with something like KQs to find out where he is in the hand.
  
• He also has an ace, but with a better kicker.

Either way, when a tight player check-raises me I am not very happy. I thought about folding, but I decided to call. On the flop the pot is $3.25. I bet $1.50 and he check-raises to $4. It is now $2.50 for me to call for a $8.75 pot. I am getting 3.5:1 to call. Some people may think those are good odds, but if I am way behind these odds doesn't really matter. I call to try to hit another ace or jack and also to get more information about his hand from his action on the turn. If he doesn't have an ace there are 5 cards I am looking to hit in the deck (an ace or a jack), which is basically 9:1 to hit on the turn. Even if I do hit I still in a tough spot and need to figure out from his next action if I am really beat or not. I am not ready to give up on the hand yet, but must proceed cautiously.

Another interesting point is that when most people check raise, they raise 3 times the original bet or the pot. When people are check raising out of position they tend to increase the raise even more. This is under that amount, which could mean two things. Either he has hit a monster and wants to keep me in the pot or he is trying to get me to fold cheaply with maybe a drawing hand. I would think with a monster though he would bet more to protect his hand.

The turn comes a 10 of hearts. To most beginners watching this hand, the turn may look like a good card for me. I now have a flush draw, a straight draw, and top pair with a decent kicker. I view it as the opposite, a very bad card. Let's look at a list of hands that card helps.

• pocket 10s
• a flush draw on the flop
  
• KhQh
  
• 67 (although most unlikely)
  

So now even though my hand looks great, I am still beat by pretty much the whole range that I put him on at the beginning of the hand. I am still beat by a set. I am still beat by a better ace. Now all the possible draws have caught up. Even if I try to catch any of my outs I have no idea if any of them are good. I am pretty sure I am behind, but how far behind am I? He'll let us know by his turn bet. The board is now Ah 8h 9d 10h.

He now bets almost the pot ($10 into $11.25 pot) into a scary straight and flush board. That is the first danger sign from a tight player. The second danger sign is our stack sizes. By betting the pot, he is pot committing himself by leaving $13.75 behind. This is now a clear fold. I only have $5.50 invested in the pot and I would be risking my whole stack if I continue.

A lot of beginners may have been all in on a hand like this, thinking that they have 19 outs. With this action that seems nearly impossible, but even with that many outs they would only be around 40% to hit the river. To continue with this hand would be terrible not only because that is not a good chance to hit, but also that because of the stack sizes the betting is capped and the implied odds are very poor for getting any more money when they hit.

I think this hand shows illustrates the importance of putting together all the factors of cash game play such as stack sizes, opponent hand ranges, bet sizes, and board reading.

Cash Games: Hands With High Implied Odds

In cash games where stacks are deep, I like playing hands with high implied odds in position with a cheap flop. Hands like 78s, 10Js, 34s, 1 gap suited cards near that range, or pairs to hit a set can end up making a lot of money. They are easy to play. Basically see a flop for cheap with as many opponents as possible in late position. If you don't hit a monster, move on and fold the hand. If you do hit a monster on the flop, extract all the opponents money. If you flop a nice drawing hand, see how your opponents react and you may get a free card or a nice price to see the next street.

Conversely, hands like AA, KK, QQ, etc. have reverse implied odds in those big stack cash games. This is because as soon as your opponent figures out that you had one of these big hands pre-flop and they know they have a better hand, you are in trouble. They can get a lot of chips from you before you can get away. Unless you can make the big lay down, they may get your whole stack.

The more concealed your hand is the more money you will make from it. This is why some skilled action players can make a lot of money*. They play a lot of cards and see a lot of flops. Inevitably, they are going to hit more odd hands that people don't expect. Since they have been betting a lot and playing so loose people never seem to believe they have a hand. Because of this, the hands where they get a monster often get paid off in large pots.

Here is a little list I made a few days ago. I rank hands on how difficult they are to spot and which hands can make the most money.

Order of Concealed Hands for implied odds (cash games in position):
1. gap connectors hitting a straight
2. set
3. 2 pair
4. connector straight
5. full house
6. straight flush
7. flush

I am not going to explain all of these hands, but I will point out a few quite notes. Since a flush is usually the most obvious hand to spot, this goes at the bottom of the list. The reason gap connectors is at the top of the list is not just for the reason that it is very difficult to spot. It is also because of the fact that your opponent can hit more of the flop. The more of the flop that you have left open for your opponents to hit, the more you are going to get paid off. If you flop the nut straight, there are more chances that your opponent can hit the flop as well as opposed to if you flopped 2 pair. When you flop 2 pair, it is less likely that your opponent can hit a hand worthy of paying you off since you have taken a lot of the outs. There is also of course, a chance that your opponent has hit a better hand than you, such as a set. While a full house may not be as obvious to spot, it also means that your opponent is unlikely to have hit the flop. So in conclusion, for the most part straights and sets will pay off the most as they are the most difficult to spot and leave the most openings for your opponent to hit the board as well.

*There is a big difference between these skilled players and donkeys that play the same amount of hands. In hands where skilled loose players have a small hand, nothing, or run into resistance from opponents, the pots don't get that large. In hands where they make actually make a hand, they get paid off more than a regular player. It is a combination or winning a lot of small pots with continuation bets and winning large pots with concealed hands that make these players successful.

Tournaments: When antes are introduced

Antes are a wonderful thing. This is something that beginning and novice players fail to realize. I like to exploit this. During a tournament most people get used to raises being a certain size compare to the blinds. Often this may be 3x the big blind. When antes are first introduced people are still in this mind set that the standard raise is 3x. When playing with just the blinds, if you raise to 3x the big blind you are basically risking 3 to win 1.5. If you make this same raise when the antes are introduced you are often risking approximately 3 to win 2.5. The great thing about this though is that most players don't realize that you are risking the same amount for a greater reward. Their reaction is the same, meaning they will fold the same amount of times, even though they have much better odds to call.

Of course not all players think this way, but a lot will. In addition to this if you now start raising 4x the big blind, you are still getting better odds than before the antes were introduced (4 to win 2.5 or better), but opponents view you as having a very strong hand as the bigger raise looks like more of a danger. Because of this I like to open up the range of raising hands once the antes are introduced and employ more advanced plays to steal. Generally I have played fairly tight in the beginning of the tourney up to this point, so people have given me a tight table image. When the antes are introduced I switch gears, but opponents may take a while before they realize this, and by this time I have stolen a small, but relatively important amount of their chips.